iPhone Predictions from 4 Years Ago: The Right and the Wrong

The iPhone turns 4 and is nearly on version 5 and has been a huge success financially for Apple which has re-defined the mobile space and make the smart phone new new digital frontier.  But who saw that 4 years ago?  Some did:

January 11, 2007
In a reactionary preview post-iPhone unveiling, David Pogue of The New York Times writes:

What [Apple] does have, however, is a real shot at redefining the cellphone. How many millions of people are, at this moment, carrying around both an iPod and a cellphone? How many would love to carry a single combo device that imposes no feature or design penalties? Considering that the cellphone is many people’s most personal gadget, how many would leap at the chance to replace their current awkward models with something with the class, the looks and the effortlessness of an iPod?

And some notably the CEO of Microsoft now desperately trying to catch Apple up got it super wrong…

April 30, 2007
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer speaking to USA Today’s David Lieberman in an interview brings up market share and software saturation:

There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent of them, than I would to have 2 percent or 3 percent, which is what Apple might get.”

Oh, the irony… Still at least Microsoft see where they missed the boat and are trying to catch up, as they did with the web. If its any consolation, Steve, the expert’s predictions a rarely right…

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